The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has released its 2026 annual climate outlook, marking a significant shift from traditional statistical models to an advanced Earth system climate model (DePreSys4). This model, based on the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system, integrates atmospheric, oceanic, land, and sea ice interactions, utilizing 10 ensemble members to enhance forecast reliability. The outlook reflects rapid global climate changes, including the record-high temperatures and sea surface temperatures observed over the past three years. This transition aims to improve the interpretation and causal understanding of climate phenomena in Korea and worldwide.
For 2026, South Korea’s average temperature is expected to be higher than the normal range (12.3–12.7°C), while precipitation is forecasted to be similar to the normal (1,193.2–1,444.0 mm). Sea surface temperatures around Korea are also projected to exceed the normal range (16.4–16.6°C). The probability of above-normal annual average temperature is 70%, precipitation near normal is 50%, and above-normal sea surface temperature is 80%. The Northern Hemisphere is expected to experience stronger anticyclonic circulation, especially from Europe through Eurasia to East Asia.
The KMA explained that various oceanic and atmospheric factors, such as the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), positive Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB), and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), are influencing Korea’s climate. KMA Administrator Lee Mi-seon emphasized the need for thorough preparation against heatwaves and high sea temperatures, as well as vigilance against regional droughts and heavy rainfall due to precipitation variability. The KMA is committed to close cooperation with disaster-related agencies and local governments to minimize the impact of extreme weather events.
Looking ahead, the effects of climate change are expected to become even more pronounced, making the adoption of precise climate prediction systems crucial for disaster response and policy planning. Rising sea surface temperatures and air temperatures could impact agriculture, fisheries, and energy sectors, necessitating proactive measures across industries. Tailored disaster preparedness strategies for regional precipitation variability are also urgently needed. The KMA will continue to provide up-to-date climate information to enhance public safety and quality of life.
The KMA’s adoption of an advanced Earth system climate model for the 2026 outlook marks a technological leap in climate forecasting. By integrating complex interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice, the model offers a more nuanced understanding of climate risks. This advancement enables more effective early warning systems and data-driven policy decisions, which are essential for mitigating the impacts of climate change on society and the economy.